Saturday, March 1, 2014

NLHE Hand Analysis #1

Hand 1 - Defending Range in 3-Bet Pot

bdon22 (SB)$222.16
Reads: BB is 23/15 with a 3-bet of 9.3% over 113 hands. 16.7% 3-bet in BB (12 hands). AFq 65/71/38. WWSF 70%. Small sample but appears to be quite aggressive pre and post-flop.
  • Pre-Flop ($3, 6 players)Hero is SB
  • dK sQ
4 folds, bdon22 raises to $6, BB raises to $17, bdon22 calls $11
Analysis: It's blind vs. blind so ranges tend to get wider as it's more like a heads-up match. Considering he 3-bets 16.7% in BB, I have to defend KQo here. His light 3-betting range could include many bluffing hands like suited aces, suited connectors/gappers, and maybe some King-rag sutied or Queen-rag suited hands as well.
  • Flop ($34, 2 players)
  • s3 hK c7
bdon22 checks, BB bets $18, bdon22 calls $18
Analysis: We flop TP2K and this is a board that BB is likely to bet all of his bluffs on. We block AK, and it's unlikely BB 3-bet us pre-flop with 33/77 making sets very unlikely. His value range here is very narrow: AA (6 combos), AK (8 combos), K7s/K3s (4 combos), KK (1 combo) - 1.4% of hands total, or about 9% of his total 3-betting range. We also chop with KQ (6 combos). 

I would check/call some medium strength hands here such as A7s, 88-TT, Kx, and some strong hands like 33/77 or the occasional KK/AA that I slowplayed with pre-flop. It's very hard for him to 3-bet me with a bluffing hand if I check/raise; and he might continue bluffing with those on later streets. So I think check/calling my entire range on this board might be best (but I'm not sure).
  • Turn ($70, 2 players)
  • c2
bdon22 checks, BB bets $45, bdon22 calls $45
Analysis: The 2c brings some flush draws and straight draws onto the board. If BB is holding a hand like A5, A4, 65, 54 or two clubs, this is a great turn card for him to bet again. We know from his aggression frequency stat that he likes to stay aggressive on the turn 71% of the time (very high). It's difficult for me to call 2-barrels with 7x and 88-TT here. 

Against this range, I have two options: check/call or check/raise. Check/raising makes sense if I have one of the best hands in my range (sets) that I can balance with some bluffs like 65cc/54cc/Axcc.  To protect my check/calling range, I should still sometimes check/call this turn with strong hands like AA, K7s and some draws like AQcc/AJcc that might still be able to river some showdown value. Otherwise my range becomes too capped and villain can recklessly over-bet on most rivers.
  • River ($160, 2 players)
  • d7
bdon22 checks, BB goes all-in $375.61, bdon22 goes all-in $142.16
Analysis: BB effectively bets $142.16 into a $160 pot. We are risking $142.16 to win a pot of $302.16. Therefore, if we call, we need to win at least $142.16/$444.16 = 32% of the time to break-even. The question is - will BB bluff this river 1/3 of the time or more?

Looking back at his turn range, we saw that his range still contained a lot of bluffs. None of those hands made their draw on the river, and none of them can expect to win the pot at showdown either. So in order for him to win the pot with those hands, he must bluff with them. 

From BB's perspective, the 7 on the river is a helpful card for him, because it removes 2 of the 3 combinations of 77 from our range. From my initial analysis on the flop, BB can't have 33 or 77, and we block a large % of his value range by having a King ourselves. Additionally, we don't hold any clubs in our hand, which increases the likelihood that BB is holding a busted club draw himself. On the other hand, after we called flop and turn, it's very likely that a smart villain won't expect us to fold a King on the river, so he may decide to shut down with most of his bluffs. 

Let's give BB a river value betting range of: AA (6 combos), AK (8 combos), K7s (2 combos), KK (1 combo) - total 17 combos. And a bluffing range of AQcc, AJcc, ATcc, QJcc, JTcc, T9cc (hands which block the best bluff catchers in our range KT-KQ) - total 6 combos. Plus we chop with KQ - 6 combos. Against this range, we have 32.14% equity according to Equilab, so it's a break-even call. As soon as we decide to add some more bluffs into his range, all the baby Axcc hands and suited connectors like 65s and 54s, it becomes a clear call. So against an aggressive opponent, we should call here.

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